📊 Recap
Seattle fell 3-7, and the edge didn't materialize tonight. The process was sound — Kirby's profile vs. this lineup and Rocker's inflated peripherals gave us a legitimate lean — but thin edges don't guarantee outcomes, and Texas executed when it counted.
📊 Recap
The over 9.5 never got off the ground in a quiet 3-2 final. Both starters outperformed their underlying metrics on the day — a variance outcome, but the process behind this play remains sound.
📊 Recap
The under 8.5 didn't hold, with the combined 13 runs edging past our 7.95 projection by just over five runs. The model identified legitimate suppression factors, but the final score reflects the variance that comes with any projection-based approach.
📊 Recap
Washington fell 3-2 in a tight one, and the model's edge didn't materialize on the scoreboard. The underlying logic — a struggling Scherzer, a hot Nationals offense — was sound, but baseball compresses outcomes, and this one didn't go our way.
📊 Recap
Tonight's matchup was postponed before a pitch was thrown, resulting in a push. No process to evaluate — the game simply didn't happen. Stakes are refunded and we move on.
📊 Recap
Atlanta fell hard, 14-3, and Thornton's peripherals never got the chance to materialize — the Mets simply dominated from the jump. The model's edge was real on paper; tonight the variance broke the other way decisively.
📊 Recap
Max Fried and the Yankees offense delivered exactly as projected, with New York cruising to a 9-5 win. Schultz's vulnerable profile was exposed early, and the bullpen depth ensured there was no path back for Chicago.
📊 Recap
The Cubs handled business, winning 7-3 in exactly the environment our model projected. The heat-expanded park factors and offensive form edge materialized cleanly, with Chicago's bats outperforming St. Louis across the board.
📊 Recap
Boston took care of business, 4-2. The bullpen edge held firm — Chapman and the Sox relief corps locked it down late, and Tolle's strong underlying metrics translated exactly as projected.
📊 Recap
Milwaukee dropped this one 3-0, a shutout loss that stings regardless of the process. The model liked the talent gap and bullpen edge, and those edges remain real — sometimes the ball just doesn't fall your way.
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