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The pitching dominance we projected materialized in full — a 1-0 final, with both starters suppressing offenses exactly as the underlying metrics suggested. Our 6.55 model projection proved prescient, and the under 7.0 cashed with room to spare.
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Suarez delivered exactly what the numbers projected, holding Toronto in check while Gausman and the Blue Jays offense couldn't overcome the matchup disadvantage. The edge held up cleanly — Boston covered the win probability and then some in a convincing 6-1 finish.
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The Pirates delivered in a tight 8-7 win, with Ashcraft's underlying metrics holding up and Pittsburgh's familiarity with Taillon proving costly for Chicago. The sharp money and process-driven case aligned cleanly with the result.
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The over hit comfortably as both starters struggled early, exactly as the underlying metrics suggested. Mikolas and Drake combined to allow runs in bunches, and Washington's struggling bullpen couldn't contain Arizona's lineup — a clean result driven by process, not luck.
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The 8.5 didn't get there, as a 3-2 final kept this one well under the number. The pitching dynamics we flagged — limited-pitch Lopez, bullpen exposure — never materialized into run production, and both offenses went quiet when it mattered.
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The Mets covered with room to spare, rolling 8-3 in a game where the pricing inefficiency we identified played out cleanly. Peralta's underlying stuff held up, Citi Field kept things manageable early, and New York's lineup did the rest.
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The Marlins fell 5-3, and the result didn't go our way. Buehler's command concerns were legitimate, but San Diego executed well enough to cover the edge we identified — sometimes the process is sound and the outcome still doesn't follow.
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The pitching mismatch materialized exactly as projected — Misiorowski's elite stuff kept Colorado off the board while Milwaukee's offense did the rest in a dominant 11-2 win. The -1.5 run line cashed with plenty of margin to spare.
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The pitching vulnerabilities we identified delivered, as both teams combined for 19 runs on the back of weak starting arms and leaky bullpens. Environmental factors and sharp money alignment made this a high-conviction play — good process, clean result.
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Houston dropped this one decisively, 12-3. Blanco and the Astros offense couldn't deliver, and Fedde's historical edge over this lineup held up. The sharp money signal didn't materialize — we take the loss and move on.
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Cincinnati took care of business in a 5-3 win, validating the pitching edge we identified. Abbott continued to suppress Cardinals hitters and the Leahy concern proved real — plus-money on the Reds was the right side.
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Giants fell 4-3 in a tight, low-scoring game that actually validated the run environment read — the process was sound, the side just didn't hold up. A one-run loss stings, but no complaints with the reasoning that got us there.
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Sánchez and the Phillies delivered in a big way, turning a projected 1.83-run edge into an 11-4 blowout. The platoon advantage and home-park splits were on point — process validated, result confirmed.
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