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Cease was dominant, shutting out Boston 6-0 in a performance that matched exactly what his peripherals projected. The pitching mismatch and reverse line movement both held — clean execution from the process straight through to the result.
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Projected run environment of 8.6 leaned heavily on San Diego's pitching vulnerabilities, and Vasquez/Sears delivered as expected — the Padres' side of the ledger did the heavy lifting in a 7-2 final. The over lands cleanly.
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The 3-1 final was a tough result, landing well short of our 9.9 combined projection. Both starters outperformed their numbers on the day, and the bats went quiet — that happens, even when the underlying logic is sound.
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The Guardians and Rays combined for just 3 runs, a result that sits well below both our projection and reasonable expectation given the underlying contact metrics. The process remains sound — sometimes the variance just runs cold, and a 0-3 final is one of those nights.
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The NRFI cashed cleanly as both Skenes and Imanaga did exactly what the numbers projected — suppressing a clean first inning before Pittsburgh was ultimately shut out entirely. Elite pitching on both sides made this one straightforward from the jump.
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The Cubs made this one look easy, rolling to an 11-0 victory behind Imanaga and a potent offense that delivered exactly as structured. The left-handed matchup advantage against Pittsburgh's lineup, sharp money alignment, and Chicago's elite OBP all materialized cleanly.
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The UNDER 9 cashed comfortably as both starters kept hitters in check and the game finished a quiet 3-2. Run suppression on both sides aligned with the model's 8.5 projection, and Atlanta's elite bullpen did its part to slam the door.
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Hunter Brown was the difference-maker, holding Chicago to one run in a clean 4-1 Astros win. The pitching edge and lineup depth we projected both materialized exactly as modeled.
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Milwaukee covered the -1.5 with room to spare, winning 8-5. Feltner's command issues materialized early, and the Brewers' offense did exactly what the run-conversion data suggested — turning baserunner volume into a comfortable margin.
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The Mets +1.5 cashed in a tight 4-3 win, with McLean's elite command against this Dodgers lineup being the central thesis — and it held. Sharp money and model alignment pointed here for a reason.
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The Under 7.5 lost on paper, but the final score of 8 total runs barely clears the line — and a 1-7 game is exactly the low-offense, pitcher-dominant environment we projected. The Rangers' offense did the damage; the process held up.
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The 7-0 Cardinals shutout was a tough result — Greene was neutralized and Cincinnati's offense went completely cold, leaving our 8.6 projection without any foundation to land on. The model liked the spot; the execution simply wasn't there.
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