📊 Recap
Giants pulled through 7-6 in what turned out to be a high-scoring affair. Logan Webb's edge against this Angels roster materialized as projected, and backing SF on the moneyline gave us clean exposure to the result without needing the run line to hold.
📊 Recap
The Dodgers covered the spread on both sides of the ball — Manaea struggled to contain Los Angeles's lineup as projected, and the bullpen held firm to close it out 4-2. Clean process, clean result.
📊 Recap
The Marlins fell 4-2, and our edge didn't materialize. San Diego held Miami's offense in check, and while our model saw a narrow Marlins advantage, the result was a clean loss — no mitigating factors, just the wrong side tonight.
📊 Recap
Athletics and Twins combined for just 2 runs in a shutout, nowhere near the 9.5 threshold. The model and sharp money both pointed to weak pitching matchups, and that edge didn't materialize today — a clean miss.
📊 Recap
The Cardinals fell 4-2, and this one stings. The process was sound — Lowder's metrics, May's underlying profile, and the sharp action all aligned — but baseball has variance, and tonight Cincinnati executed. We log the loss and move forward.
📊 Recap
Washington took care of business in a tight 3-2 win, exactly the kind of low-scoring grind our model anticipated. The +1.5 cushion never felt necessary, but backing Washington's offense against an overvalued Rodriguez was the right structural play.
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The under cashed cleanly as Skubal dominated and the Royals' patchwork pitching structure held up well enough — a 2-1 final was about as clean a result as the model could have drawn up. Wind, lineup context, and elite stuff all pointed the same direction.
📊 Recap
A 1-0 final was always going to be a tough result to navigate with our projected run totals sitting at 3.9-3.5. Both starters delivered beyond expectation, and low-scoring affairs carry inherent variance — the process was sound, the outcome wasn't.
📊 Recap
Baltimore fell 7-6 in a tight one — the run environment played out close to our projected range, but the Orioles couldn't close it out. A narrow-margin loss in a game that could have gone either way; the process was sound, the result didn't follow.
📊 Recap
The White Sox dropped this one 9-5, and Houston made the run expectation gap look wider than our model projected. Sharp alignment and peripheral data gave us reasonable footing here, but the ball didn't bounce our way tonight.
📊 Recap
Seattle fell 5-4 in a tight one. The model liked the pitching edge and the process held up on paper, but Texas found enough to edge it out — a one-run loss in a projected close game is variance, plain and simple.
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