📊 Recap
Skenes delivered another quality start, but the Pirates' offense was completely shut out in a 2-0 loss. The process remains sound — backing elite pitching at fair value is the right play — but Pittsburgh's chronic run support issues came back to bite us here.
📊 Recap
Detroit took care of business, 6-4. The bullpen edge held, sharp money read the game correctly, and Comerica did its part in keeping this a manageable, low-variance win — exactly the kind of thin-edge spot we target.
📊 Recap
The under hit cleanly, finishing at just 2 total runs — well inside our 6.3 projection. Skenes and Perez delivered, both lineups stayed cold, and the process held up exactly as drawn.
📊 Recap
The Cubs delivered in Washington, winning 8-6 as the depleted Nationals roster and shaky pitching staff played out exactly as modeled. A clean 70% equity spot that returned the expected result — process and outcome aligned here.
📊 Recap
The Mariners dropped this one 4-1, and the Yankees executed well enough to cover the spread in runs. The underlying logic — Woo's edge and sharp money movement — was reasonable, but the result didn't follow. Variance happens; process holds.
📊 Recap
Dylan Cease delivered exactly what we projected, neutralizing a Boston lineup he's historically dominated while Sandoval's uncertainty on the other side left runs on the table. Toronto's pitching edge was real, and the 5-3 final reflected it.
📊 Recap
The Mets were shut out 0-4, and Atlanta controlled this one from start to finish. Our lineup edge against Perez never materialized — a clean loss with no excuses.
📊 Recap
The Orioles covered the gap efficiently, handling Ober and pulling away for a 5-2 win. Bullpen edge held, lineup history delivered — the process was sound, and the result followed.
📊 Recap
The Over 9 didn't come close in a low-scoring 3-2 final. Both starters outperformed their projections and the bullpens held firm — the logic was sound, but the bats went quiet when it mattered.
📊 Recap
The Brewers got blown out 11-2, and there's no softening that. The underlying logic — superior team, superior starter, market value — was sound, but the execution on the field didn't cooperate tonight. On to the next one.
📊 Recap
Arizona fell 3-2 in a tight one — the process was sound, but the Diamondbacks couldn't cash in enough against Colorado's pitching. A one-run loss in a game we liked is variance, not a reason to second-guess the logic.
📊 Recap
The pitching gap we projected materialized emphatically — Martinez and the Rays' run prevention held firm while the Athletics' 5.67 ERA bullpen was exposed in a 12-4 blowout. The run line was never in question.
📊 Recap
The Astros fell 4-1, leaving us short on the run line. Brown and the offense couldn't generate the separation needed, and San Francisco's pitching held firm — a clean loss with no mitigating factors worth leaning on.
📊 Recap
The Dodgers dropped a tight one to Kansas City, 5-4, sending our -1.5 run line down. The underlying edge was sound — this one simply didn't fall our way.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →