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The under had the conditions and process working in its favor, but the bats combined for 12 runs in a 7-5 final. A losing result, variance acknowledged — the model and rationale remain sound.
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The Cardinals dominated in a 7-1 result that went firmly against our projection. Wheeler and Philadelphia's offense both underperformed on the night — sometimes the process is sound and the outcome isn't, and this was one of those days.
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The model's projection of a ~2.4-run Tampa Bay margin proved conservative — the Rays won by four. Rasmussen's dominance against Oakland's porous pitching staff materialized exactly as anticipated, covering the -1.5 run line with plenty of cushion.
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Arizona held the structural edge we projected, but Colorado's bats found enough on the night to pull the upset, 6-4. The process was sound — sometimes the numbers break the wrong way.
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Detroit fell 6-4 despite a setup that checked the right boxes — Valdez's recent form, Cleveland's struggles against lefties, and bullpen depth all pointed in the Tigers' direction. The edge was real; tonight it didn't convert.
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The Cubs rolled to a 12-6 win as the debutant-starter angle played out sharply — Jackson Kent's first major-league outing unraveled, and Washington's shaky bullpen had no answers from there. Clean result backed by a sound process.
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Mahle and the Braves delivered, with Atlanta pulling away for a 6-3 win. The pitching trajectory and bullpen edge we leaned on held up exactly as the process suggested.
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The White Sox shut out Cincinnati 5-0, validating the bullpen edge we identified. Chicago's relief corps held firm, and the wind-suppressed run environment played out as expected — a clean win on a measured stake.
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The Rangers fell 5-2 despite the process holding up on paper — Quantrill's ERA advantage and Los Angeles's depleted roster made this a reasonable spot. The Angels executed when it counted, and the variance we flagged on Klassen materialized in the wrong direction tonight.
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