📊 Recap
Boston dropped a tough 2-1 decision in Toronto, and the result didn't go our way. The edge was real — a low-run game where one swing decided it — but outcomes in close contests like this are part of the variance we accept when the process is sound.
📊 Recap
Atlanta couldn't hold it together at home, and the Mets walked away with an 8-5 win. Elder's home advantage didn't materialize tonight — a clean loss on a play we sized appropriately given the uncertainty involved.
📊 Recap
The Orioles dropped this one 9-5, and the final score wasn't close. Rogers and Baltimore's run-prevention edge didn't materialize on the day — the process was sound, but the result went the other way.
📊 Recap
Cardinals fell 6-5 in a tight one. The process held up — Dobbins outpitched Cortes and the Cardinals generated enough offense — but the bullpen couldn't protect the lead. Clean loss, no need to second-guess the reasoning.
📊 Recap
The OVER 9 cashed in a tight 6-5 final, exactly the kind of high-scoring environment our model projected. Weak starting pitching on both sides and run-favorable conditions at Busch Stadium delivered, even if the margin was slim.
📊 Recap
The Angels dropped this one 4-1, and the Rangers made it a clean loss. Detmers' edge over Gore on underlying numbers was real, but coin-flip spots go the other way often — that's the variance we sized for.
📊 Recap
The Brewers fell 3-2 in a tight one — the kind of low-margin game where the talent edge we identified simply didn't materialize on the scoreboard. No glaring process errors; sometimes a one-run loss is just a one-run loss.
📊 Recap
The model nailed this one — both starters and the bullpens delivered exactly the shutdown performances projected, with the game finishing 3-2 and well clear of the 7.5 total. Petco Park did its part, and elite pitching on both sides made this a clean, process-driven win.
📊 Recap
The structural edge held up exactly as drawn — Tampa Bay's offense found multiple paths to runs against Lopez and Oakland's struggling bullpen, with the 10-6 final reflecting the talent gap we identified. Clean win.
📊 Recap
The Astros covered the spread we needed, rolling to a 6-3 win as Houston's lineup and bullpen advantages materialized exactly as modeled. Oracle Park's suppressive environment held, and the minimum-unit sizing on a lower-conviction play still returned a clean result.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →