📊 Recap
The Reds dropped this one 7-1 despite the structural edge we identified. Singer and the offense never got going — Washington's bullpen didn't need to be tested. The process was sound; the result wasn't.
📊 Recap
The Over 9.5 didn't cash, as both offenses went quiet in a 4-3 final. The process was sound — weak pitching, favorable conditions, a strong projection — but baseball will do that sometimes. Take the L, move on.
📊 Recap
Yankees fell 2-1 in a tight one. Schlittler's strong profile held up on paper, but low-scoring games carry inherent variance — one swing was the difference, and Atlanta's bats didn't need much against a Yankees offense that couldn't answer.
📊 Recap
The Pirates were blown out 11-1, a decisive result that went well beyond normal variance. We identified a legitimate edge in the model, but Pittsburgh couldn't execute, and the Mets made us pay — clean loss, no process concerns.
📊 Recap
Miami dominated in a 12-3 rout, validating the case against a deteriorating Grayson Rodriguez. The Marlins lineup did exactly what we anticipated against a pitcher who can no longer miss bats or find the zone.
📊 Recap
Milwaukee dropped a tight one, 4-3, costing us the -1.5. The structural edge was real — Misiorowski and the bullpen held their own — but a one-run margin in baseball is always variance territory, and tonight it didn't break our way.
📊 Recap
The Cubs delivered in a big way, with the process holding up exactly as drawn — Dobnak's surface-level ERA masked real vulnerabilities, and Kansas City's struggling offense had no answers. A clean 10-2 result validated the FIP-driven read.
📊 Recap
The Cardinals took care of business as expected, with the starter gap proving decisive — McGreevy outdueled Lorenzen while St. Louis' offense did enough to pull away 7-4. Clean process, clean result.
📊 Recap
The left-handed lineup exploited Rocker exactly as anticipated, and Baltimore's offense made it look easy in a 10-5 win. The matchup edge was real, and plus-money value delivered.
📊 Recap
Detroit covered the gap we identified, winning 3-1 as San Francisco's pitching vulnerabilities held up under scrutiny. Webb's regression risk and the bullpen disparity did the work — a clean result on a thin but well-reasoned edge.
📊 Recap
Arizona covered comfortably, with the Diamondbacks keeping it close in a 4-2 loss that never required the full 1.5-run buffer. Wrobleski's underlying regression concerns proved valid, and Rodriguez's strong ERA held up on the mound.
📊 Recap
Seymour delivered, the Mariners' offense went quiet again, and the ML provided clean value without the unnecessary exposure of the run line. A well-structured play that hit on every key variable.
📊 Recap
The Padres handled business at home, winning 7-2 as Javier's regression continued to show. San Diego's bullpen held firm, and the structural edges we identified translated cleanly into the result.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →