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The 26-3 final was a tough result, as Tennessee's defense completely shut down Houston's offense in a low-scoring affair that never gave the Over a chance. The logic was sound, but the scoreboard didn't cooperate — a clean loss.
📊 Recap
The under cashed comfortably, with the final score of 17-12 landing well beneath the 39.5 total. Weather, anemic offenses, and the absence of Breece Hall all played out as projected — a clean win driven by process.
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A push on the Giants ML as New York and Washington split the difference in a 27-27 draw. The situational edges we identified appeared to materialize — the Giants covered the spread — but a late Commanders rally forced overtime and cost us the outright win.
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The Vikings defense delivered exactly what the model projected, holding New Orleans to 13 points while the Saints' linebacker injuries and short-week fatigue were real structural disadvantages. A clean win backed by process.
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Titans +7 didn't come close — Tennessee was beaten convincingly, 26-3, making this one tough to frame positively. The model saw a cushion; the field saw a blowout. We take the loss.
📊 Recap
The Bears were thoroughly handled in Green Bay, falling 31-7 in a result that went against our model across the board. No excuses — Chicago couldn't establish the ground game we projected, and the Packers controlled this one wire to wire.
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The Raiders were obliterated 17-45, a result that renders the structural edge we identified irrelevant — New England simply dominated in every phase. A 28-point loss leaves no room for nuance; this one wasn't close enough for the spread to matter.
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The Bengals covered the structural edge we identified, outscoring Miami 31-24, but a final-margin push at -7 kept this one off the win column. Process held up; the number just didn't cooperate.
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Browns +2.5 didn't cash, falling 12–17 to the Jets. The rest advantage and value edge were legitimate reasons to back Cleveland, but New York executed when it mattered — a narrow loss that reflects variance more than a flawed process.
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The 49ers covered in a tight one, winning outright 32-29. Purdy's offense delivered as expected, and Seattle's injury-thinned roster couldn't sustain the structural advantages needed to push the margin beyond three — exactly the scenario our model anticipated.
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The Cardinals were demolished 45-21, and there's no dressing that up. The sharp line movement and model value were real, but Arizona simply didn't show up — a brutal result that the process couldn't overcome on the day.
📊 Recap
The Under hit convincingly — Lions 45, Cardinals 21, for a 66-point final well below our 53.5 projection — yet somehow we still lost this one. Wait, 66 points clears 54.5, so the Over cashed; the scoring came in lopsided, but volume was there. A loss, and the outcome didn't go our way.
📊 Recap
The Falcons covered the first half but couldn't hold on, falling 30-23 and missing the number by four. Baltimore's backup-led offense found enough rhythm to beat the spread — variance we acknowledged pregame, and it landed on the wrong side tonight.
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