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The Under didn't hold up, with the Wizards and Bucks combining for 244 points against our 239.5 number. Both sides found more offense than our model projected — a clean miss on this one.
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The Under 235.5 didn't hold, as Atlanta and Orlando combined for 257 points — well clear of the number. The pace and efficiency data supported the lean, but both offenses found their rhythm tonight.
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Hawks +3.5 cashed with room to spare, as Atlanta pulled away late for a 132-125 win. The projected close margin held up, and the extra spread cushion we identified as the edge never even came into play.
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Washington covered comfortably, winning by 12 and outpacing our projected margin of five. The model identified the right side, and though the win was larger than expected, the process held up in a spot we correctly flagged as marginal value rather than a high-conviction play.
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Minnesota handled Miami convincingly, 131-106, and the Heat never generated the home-floor edge we anticipated. A 25-point margin leaves little room for process defense — the Timberwolves simply had the better night, and this one wasn't close.
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The Hornets covered with room to spare, winning outright 110-103. Our read that the market overreacted to Charlotte's injury news proved correct — the line moved six points, but the actual impact landed closer to our four-point projection, preserving the edge we identified.
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The Over 219.5 didn't come close, with the final landing at 213 — well short of the number. A narrow edge play that simply didn't materialize; no excuses, just a bad result on a small-unit wager sized appropriately for the modest conviction we had.
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The under hit comfortably, with a final of 92-135 (227 combined) keeping well clear of the 236.5 line. Toronto's defensive identity delivered, and the measured unit sizing on a lean play reflects exactly the kind of disciplined process that compounds over time.
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The Jazz dropped this one decisively, 103-123, and the final margin left no room to debate the result. Memphis controlled the game, and our projected structural edge simply didn't materialize — a clean loss with no mitigating factors to point to.
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Final score of 243 clipped our Under 239.5 by a few buckets. Our projection of 236 had the edge, but the number didn't hold — that's the variance on a small-unit play. No process concerns here; the math was sound.
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Houston pulled away convincingly, 128-110, covering the spread with room to spare. The Mavericks couldn't generate the offensive resistance we projected, and a half-point of mathematical edge wasn't enough to overcome an 18-point margin.
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Final score of 238 total points pushed past our 229.5 line. The defensive structure we leaned on didn't hold tonight — no excuses, just a bad result on a narrow edge. Variance happens; the process behind this one was sound.
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The Lakers pulled away decisively, 127-105, covering well beyond the spread. This was always a coin-flip edge, and tonight the variance didn't fall our way — no complaints on the process, just a clean loss to log and move on from.
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The injury-depleted Warriors offense showed up exactly as projected, with the final score of 232 combining well below our 234.5 ceiling. A disciplined, low-conviction spot that earned its result the right way.
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Suns +2.5 didn't survive tonight — Portland pulled away decisively, 124-83. We sized this appropriately given the narrow projection edge, but the final margin was well outside any reasonable variance window. Clean loss, nothing more to it.
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The under hit comfortably, with the final score of 207 total points landing well beneath our 231.5 line. The absence of Avdija and Kennard suppressed Phoenix's offensive output exactly as the model anticipated, validating the process on a clean result.
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The Clippers handled business convincingly, winning by 25 and covering the -4.5 with ease. Malik Monk's absence materialized as projected, and Sacramento's offense never found its footing — a clean result where the process and the outcome aligned.
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