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Our UNDER 213.5 lost as Detroit-Cleveland finished at 225 total points. The defensive metrics and pace projections that formed our edge didn't materialize in this spot, with both teams shooting efficiently above their playoff averages.
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The Pistons covered early but couldn't sustain their road form, falling 109-116 as Cleveland's home advantage ultimately prevailed despite our sound contrarian reasoning based on Detroit's recent momentum and the Cavaliers' concerning venue-dependent splits.
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Cleveland's rim protection executed as anticipated, with Mobley and Allen forcing Cunningham away from his preferred driving lanes to keep him under the 27.5 number. The established defensive pattern held true once again.
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Harris exceeded expectations and cleared the 18.5-point line, proving the market's adjustment was warranted despite his modest regular season average. While our mean regression thesis had statistical merit, playoff dynamics often create different scoring environments than regular season patterns suggest.
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Our Mitchell over 27.5 points play missed despite solid process behind the pick. His 32.5 PPG average against Detroit and elevated usage rate in the Cavaliers' offensive struggles represented legitimate value, but variance didn't break our way in this spot.
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Duren failed to reach the 11 rebounds needed despite Detroit maintaining their aggressive rebounding approach. The structural advantages we identified were valid, but individual performance variance worked against us in this spot.
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Harden finished under 19.5 points as our analysis predicted, with Detroit's defensive pressure continuing to limit his scoring opportunities and three-point efficiency remaining problematic throughout the contest.
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Our under projection missed as the Thunder's offense exploded for 131 points in a dominant road performance, with the game clearing our 211.5 total by nearly 28 points. The Lakers defense failed to show the containment our model weighted heavily from their recent sample.
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Our Holmgren over 16.5 points cashed as expected, with the structural matchup advantage against the Lakers' frontcourt playing out exactly as analyzed. The consistent offensive production we identified continued against Los Angeles' vulnerable interior defense.
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The regression narrative played out as projected, with Reaves cooling off from his Game 2 shooting surge and Oklahoma City's perimeter defenders effectively containing his scoring output to keep him under the 22.5-point threshold.
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The Lakers' defensive scheme executed as anticipated, with their blitz coverage and compact shell limiting Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring opportunities throughout the contest. Our process-driven approach to this historically favorable matchup delivered the expected result.
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