📊 Recap
The 2-0 final was about as clean as it gets — Imanaga's dominance, the Yankees' depleted lineup, and elite bullpen work on both sides combined to suppress run-scoring exactly as projected. The structural case held, and the market's inflated number gave us all the edge we needed.
📊 Recap
The Pirates fell 8-7 in a high-scoring affair that didn't play to our thesis. Skenes' underlying metrics remain sound, but the run environment got away from both sides — a tough result, not a flawed process.
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Baltimore held serve at home, 6-4, as the rotation mismatch played out exactly as modeled. Young's track record provided the structural edge, and Philadelphia's struggles outside their top four starters continued right on cue.
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Dylan Cease delivered exactly the performance his peripherals projected, keeping St. Louis off the board long enough for Toronto to cover the -1.5. A disciplined half-unit play on genuine positive EV, and the process held up cleanly.
📊 Recap
The Marlins took this one 5-2, and the result didn't go our way. The pitcher-quality edge we identified didn't materialize on the scoreboard — a loss we accept cleanly, with no compelling mitigating factors to lean on.
📊 Recap
Tampa Bay fell 6-1 to Chicago, a result that stings but not a surprise given our own pre-game caution — we flagged narrow edge and negative EV, sizing down accordingly. The loss is noted; the process was sound.
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Cleveland dropped this one 4-1, and the result stings less than the process concern we flagged pre-game — Bibee's regression risk was real, and we noted the line didn't offer enough value to justify confidence. A small position, a clean loss.
📊 Recap
The Nationals fell 2-6, and Atlanta controlled this one comfortably. We flagged Washington's bullpen vulnerability as a real concern compressing win probability near break-even — tonight that risk materialized. A marginal edge play, and the variance didn't fall our way.
📊 Recap
The Brewers covered comfortably, winning 6-2 as the pitching mismatch delivered exactly what the model projected. Ryan Johnson and the Angels' struggling rotation couldn't contain Milwaukee's lineup, and the bullpen held the lead with ease.
📊 Recap
Detroit covered every angle of our thesis in emphatic fashion — Mize was sharp, Oakland's battered bullpen got exposed early, and the heat-baked environment did nothing to help the A's. A 13-1 final was the process playing out to its logical extreme.
📊 Recap
The Under 11 never had a chance — a 13-1 final was a decisive beat. Our projected suppression from Mize didn't materialize, and the game ran well past our ceiling. Clean loss, no asterisks.
📊 Recap
Padres dominated wire-to-wire, shutting out the Giants 7-0. The pitching staff delivered exactly as modeled, and San Diego's lineup took care of business against a struggling Giants club — a clean execution of a thin but well-reasoned edge.
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Seattle won 5-3, but the Twins covered the -1.5 by a single run. The pitching mismatch materialized as projected — this came down to a one-run margin at the wire, the kind of variance that comes with run-line betting.
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