📊 Recap
Seattle took a 4-3 win as the model called it — Gilbert's command held, the bullpen locked it down late, and the park kept scoring suppressed. The edge we identified on both the starter and relief disparity translated directly to the result.
📊 Recap
The OVER 7.5 didn't come close in a 1-0 final, a brutal offensive outcome regardless of how the pitching structure ultimately shook out. No excuses — zero runs for Chicago is a variance outcome our model couldn't price for.
📊 Recap
The heat and the Athletics' shattered bullpen delivered as projected — 14 combined runs cleared the 10.5 with room to spare. Extreme environment plus bottom-tier relief was always the right formula here.
📊 Recap
The Under 8.5 didn't hold, with the Rangers and Astros combining for 9 runs in a 5-4 final. Both starters held their end reasonably well, but the run total edged just over the number — a one-run miss that falls within the variance we acknowledged going in.
📊 Recap
The Braves' offense delivered against Mikolas, and Lopez struggled to match his surface numbers as our projection anticipated. An 11-3 final validated the process — our 10.43 run projection cleared the 9.5 total with room to spare.
📊 Recap
Padres held on 6-5 in a game that played out largely as modeled — San Diego's superior bullpen ultimately made the difference in a close one. The win-probability edge held up exactly as projected.
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The Brewers took care of business in a clean 3-1 win, with the bullpen edge playing out exactly as expected. Milwaukee's relief corps held the Angels at bay in the late innings, validating the structural advantage we identified at a price that offered real value.
📊 Recap
Kansas City fell 6-12 to Colorado, a tough result in a high-variance Coors Field environment we'd already flagged. The edge was real at +100, but the environment delivered — this is exactly why we kept sizing at 0.5u.
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