📊 Recap
Baltimore covered the Angels' offensive ineptitude exactly as modeled, holding them to a single run. Low-scoring outcomes like this 3-1 final validate the process — the Orioles' run-generation edge and LA's depleted lineup were the right variables to lean on.
📊 Recap
Cleveland fell 6-2 to New York, a result that goes against our structural read on the Mets' depleted roster. No glaring process errors here — this was a close-to-fair price that didn't convert, and that's within the expected variance on a 1.0u play.
📊 Recap
Atlanta took care of business, 4-2. The Braves' pitching edge held, and Miami's rotation concerns proved legitimate — a clean result, though the razor-thin model edge reminded us this was always a small-unit play.
📊 Recap
The under had a clean setup on paper, but the 10-run combined total crossed the line. Worth noting our pre-play flag on Dobnak's inflated surface ERA proved warranted — the process was sound, the result wasn't.
📊 Recap
Cubs +1.5 cashed as Chicago kept it within the run line despite a 5-1 final. The cushion did exactly what it was designed to do — the Dodgers won the game, but the spread held, validating the one-run outcome thesis.
📊 Recap
A push on the Under 8 after an 8-0 final — technically no harm done, but Seattle's offense did enough to brush the number. The pitching-friendly environment held up its end; the line just needed one fewer Mariners run to cash.
📊 Recap
The Diamondbacks got routed 9-4, and this one wasn't close. Vasquez's underlying profile still supports the logic, but the model's edge didn't materialize tonight — variance works both ways, and the process remains sound.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →