📊 Recap
The Cubs covered comfortably, winning 10-5 in a game that played out exactly as projected. Wrobleski's surface ERA couldn't hold — the regression risk materialized — and Boyd delivered the stable home performance we anticipated, making the +1.5 cushion feel like a formality by the late innings.
📊 Recap
The Phillies handled business at home, 6-3, as the process held up — Alvarez's thin MLB track record created the variance we anticipated, and Philadelphia's lineup delivered despite the southpaw matchup concern. Clean win.
📊 Recap
Pittsburgh covered the +1.5 as the Brewers' thin bullpen was unable to hold the line in a 4-3 final. The thesis held — Milwaukee's relief depth concern proved real, and the run-line cushion was exactly the margin that mattered.
📊 Recap
Houston fell 3-1, landing inside the adverse end of our projected scoring band. The situational lean didn't convert, and Toronto's pitching held firm — a clean loss within the variance we acknowledged going in.
📊 Recap
The regression to season-long offensive baselines came through decisively, with both offenses combining for just 6 runs. A moderate-confidence play, but the pitching-driven thesis held up cleanly.
📊 Recap
The pitching-matchup edge held up cleanly — San Francisco's starter outperformed market expectations and the Giants handled business 5-1. Getting value on a 47-65 team requires process discipline, and this one rewarded it.
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Colorado dropped this one 13-9, so the run environment played out exactly as anticipated — just not in our favor. A 22-run combined total at Coors was hardly a surprise, but Tampa handled the chaos better on the day. Clean loss, no complaints.
📊 Recap
The Diamondbacks handled this one convincingly, 5-1. Pfaadt's splits didn't materialize as an edge tonight, and King held firm enough to negate our regression thesis — sometimes the underlying numbers take longer to surface, and this one simply didn't fall our way.
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