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Our Royals +1.5 position fell well short as New York dominated 13-4, exceeding our projected differential by a significant margin. The measured edge we identified proved insufficient against a decisive Yankees performance that went well beyond normal variance expectations.
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Our UNDER 8.0 lost as the Reds defeated the Twins 5-4, with 9 total runs exceeding our projection by 1.4 runs. The cold weather conditions materialized as expected, but offensive production ran slightly above our model's 7.6-run forecast despite the challenging environment.
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Our OVER 9.0 cashed as the game totaled 13 runs (White Sox 6, Athletics 7), with both offenses capitalizing on the favorable park factors and starting pitcher vulnerabilities we identified in our pre-game analysis.
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The Under 7.0 cashed comfortably in a 4-1 Detroit victory, as the cold Fenway conditions and Tarik Skubal's dominance (as projected) combined to suppress offensive output well below our 6.6-run projection.
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The pitching differential materialized exactly as projected, with Skubal delivering another dominant performance while Bello struggled with command, allowing Detroit to control the game throughout for a comfortable 4-1 victory that easily covered the run line.
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The UNDER 7.5 cashed comfortably with a 5-2 final, as both loanDepot Park's pitcher-friendly conditions and solid pitching performances from both sides played out exactly as projected in our pre-game analysis.
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Our UNDER 7.5 cashed comfortably as both Rodriguez and Kremer delivered the expected strong pitching performances, with the final 6 total runs falling well below our 7.1 projection and validating the temperature-suppressed offensive environment we anticipated.
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Our UNDER 7.0 projection hit as both Sale and Sanchez delivered the elite pitching performances our models anticipated, with the final 4-run total landing well below our 6.5 projection in a game that showcased exactly why quality left-handed pitching was the driving factor.
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Our NRFI cashed as both Sale and Sanchez delivered the expected first-inning execution, keeping the opening frame scoreless. The pitcher profiles and platoon disadvantages we identified played out exactly as projected.
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The Dodgers fell short 4-3 despite our projected offensive advantage, as Colorado's weak lineup managed to capitalize against Sheehan's struggles while limiting damage against Feltner. The fundamental matchup analysis was sound, but variance worked against us in a close contest.
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The Diamondbacks delivered a convincing 6-2 victory as projected, with the pitching differential proving decisive as anticipated. Gallen's quality start validated our model's assessment of the matchup advantage over Scherzer's early-season struggles.
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Our Over 9.5 projection missed as the game produced just 5 total runs in a 4-1 final. Despite both starters entering with concerning ERAs, the pitching held up better than expected and the offensive execution didn't materialize.
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