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NHL Picks – Oct 3

NHL Line Value — Oct 3: Value angle on Blues @ Avalanche. 5 plays inside featuring value-based analysis.

📅 Results updated: 8:14 AM ET•5 free picks
4-1 (+3.5u)
NHL Blues @ Avalanche
WON ✓Final
Our Pick
Avalanche ML
Final Score1-6
Result+1.5u

📊 Recap

The Avalanche handled business in dominant fashion, rolling 6-1 over a Blues squad running on fumes at altitude with a backup in net. Every structural edge we identified showed up on the scoresheet — clean process, clean result.

Posted: 10/3/2026 10:46 AM ET
NHL Capitals @ Lightning
WON ✓Final
Our Pick
Lightning ML
Final Score1-3
Result+1u

📊 Recap

Lightning won 3-1 as the model's edge held up cleanly. Lindgren and a road-weary Washington team were exactly the liability we projected, and Vasilevskiy delivered at home — process and probability aligned, and the result followed.

Posted: 10/3/2026 10:46 AM ET
NHL Stars @ Predators
WON ✓Final
Our Pick
Predators ML
Final Score1-2
Result+1u

📊 Recap

Nashille's situational edge held up exactly as modeled — Saros and a rested Predators squad controlled a fatigued Dallas side riding a backup, with the 2-1 final validating the back-to-back/goaltending thesis. Clean win on a disciplined +EV spot.

Posted: 10/3/2026 10:46 AM ET
NHL Blackhawks @ Sabres
LOST ✗Final
Our Pick
UNDER 6.5
Final Score3-4
Result-1u

📊 Recap

The Under looked well-positioned at 6.5, and a 3-4 final is a tough beat — seven goals is just enough to sink it. The model read the matchup correctly; the line simply didn't hold.

Posted: 10/3/2026 10:46 AM ET
NHL Blues @ Avalanche
WON ✓Final
Our Pick
OVER 6.5
Final Score1-6
Result+1u

📊 Recap

The Blues-Avalanche final of 7-1 pushed well past our 6.5 target, validating our model's edge built around the back-to-back road/backup goalie scenario. The process held up exactly as projected — a clean win.

Posted: 10/3/2026 10:46 AM ET

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