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Sabres and Leafs combined for nine goals, validating our read on both teams' defensive vulnerabilities without their top pairs. The structural edge held up, and the 6.5 line had no chance.
📊 Recap
Maple Leafs ML didn't hold, with Buffalo pulling out a 5-4 win. The structural edge we identified was real, but this was a moderate-confidence play for a reason — variance happens, and we sized accordingly.
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Predators fell 3-2 in a tight one. The situational edge we identified was real, but close games can go either way — this was a coin-flip spot, and the coin didn't land our way. No complaints on the process.
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Jets fell 4-3 in a close one. The goaltending edge we identified didn't materialize on the night — Chicago capitalized and held on. Losses happen in thin-margin spots; the reasoning was sound, and the reduced unit size reflected the risk appropriately.
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The Over 6.5 didn't come close, as a 4-2 final left us well short of the number. Both offenses were contained well below their seasonal averages, and the market's lean toward the Over simply didn't materialize tonight.
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Colorado took this one 4-2, and the Oilers' home edge didn't materialize tonight. We sized this appropriately given the marginal value, and that discipline holds regardless of outcome — a loss, but the right kind of exposure on a coin-flip spot.
📊 Recap
Golden Knights covered the structural edge we identified, rolling Calgary 6-2 on home ice. The favorable goal differential and Calgary's defensive struggles played out as expected — a clean result on a disciplined, small-exposure play.
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