NHL Picks – Oct 11

The Under at 6.5 lost despite the final score landing at 8 total goals — a result that exceeded our 6.0 true total projection by two. The process was sound; this one simply didn't fall our way.

The Canucks were routed 6-2, covering nothing and making the +1.5 look generous in hindsight. The model saw edge on the spread given Garand's inexperience in net — that logic wasn't wrong, but the Rangers' execution made it irrelevant. A clean loss.

The Under 6.5 didn't hold as the Rangers lit up the scorecard in an 8-goal game — variance happens, even with a well-constructed edge. The model, the market movement, and the back-to-back suppression angle all aligned; tonight just wasn't the result.