📊 Recap
Our process played out as projected with Boston securing the 2-1 victory at home, as Jeremy Swayman's strong goaltending and the Bruins' home ice advantage overcame a Kings squad showing the expected fatigue from their back-to-back road schedule.
📊 Recap
Buffalo delivered the expected home performance, covering the -1.5 spread comfortably in a 6-3 victory that showcased both their offensive firepower and San Jose's continued defensive vulnerabilities on the road.
📊 Recap
Our OVER 6.5 projection missed badly as Toronto-Montreal finished 4-3, well under our 7.1 goal expectation. Both teams' offensive metrics supported the total, but hockey variance struck with unexpectedly tight defensive play from both sides.
📊 Recap
The Lightning dominated offensively as expected with five goals, but Columbus kept pace with two of their own, falling just short of our needed 1.5-goal margin in a 5-2 result. Our process identified the right offensive mismatch, but variance kept us from the cover.
📊 Recap
Our process held merit with Detroit's goaltending advantage and Florida's injury concerns materializing as expected, but the Panthers found enough offense to edge out a 4-3 victory at home. The fundamentals were sound despite the loss.
📊 Recap
Carolina controlled play as expected with Pittsburgh missing both Crosby and Malkin, but couldn't hold their lead in a back-and-forth affair that went the wrong way by a single goal. The personnel advantage and home ice translated to competitive positioning, just not the final margin we needed.
📊 Recap
Our Under 6.5 fell short as the Penguins-Hurricanes clash finished 5-4 for a 9-goal total. While Andersen provided the expected strong goaltending and the game structure aligned with projections, offensive execution exceeded our model's expectations in what became a higher-scoring affair than anticipated.
📊 Recap
Our OVER 7.0 pushed at exactly seven goals as the Oilers fell 4-3 to Colorado. The offensive talent delivered as projected with both teams combining for their expected goal output, demonstrating sound analytical fundamentals despite missing the target number by the narrowest possible margin.
📊 Recap
The over 5.5 missed badly in a 5-0 final that fell just short, with Minnesota's offense failing to show up despite strong underlying metrics. While the total reached exactly 5 goals, our process remains sound given both teams' season-long offensive production and the model's 6.4-goal projection.
📊 Recap
The OVER 6.5 cashed as expected with a 4-3 final, driven by the offensive firepower we identified in both lineups. Colorado and Edmonton's elite scoring rates materialized despite the relatively modest total, validating our process on the inflated juice.
📊 Recap
Our Under 6.5 projection hit as expected with the Predators defeating Seattle 4-2 for 6 total goals. The combination of solid goaltending from Saros and both teams' middling offensive output created the lower-scoring environment our model anticipated.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →