📊 Recap
The Rays dropped this one 7-3 at home, a result that didn't align with the structural edges we identified. The model's 61% projection reflects a sound process — outcomes like this are part of the variance we accept when playing the long game.
📊 Recap
Peralta's pitch-to-contact profile held firm, finishing with just 3 strikeouts — well clear of the 4.5 line. The process read correctly: reduced swing-and-miss intent in October translated exactly as projected.
📊 Recap
Jayden Daniels didn't hit the 36.5 rush yard threshold, and we take the loss. The game script leaned our way with Washington trailing, but the number simply didn't materialize — that's the variance in player props.
📊 Recap
The 49ers failed to cover the 7.5, and we take the loss. Our model identified this as a near-coin-flip on the number, which is exactly why we sized it small — variance happens, and the process behind this one remains sound.
📊 Recap
The total fell well short, with both offenses combining for just 40 points against a final of 23-17. A low-scoring defensive battle doesn't align with either team's recent tendencies, but the result is what it is — a loss we sized appropriately given the marginal edge identified.
📊 Recap
Purdy cleared the number with room to spare, finishing with 264 yards against a Washington secondary that once again proved exploitable through the air. The process pointed here — and the result followed.
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McCaffrey finished with 64 rushing yards, just clearing our 60.5 threshold by a slim margin. As noted pre-game, this was always a coin-flip projection — the process was sound, but variance went the other way.
📊 Recap
The Under 6.5 lost despite a 7-goal final that ran just over the number — the process held up, with both teams' offenses largely suppressed through regulation. Variance pushed it over the line tonight.
📊 Recap
The model nailed this one — Philadelphia's anemic offense stayed quiet and Colorado's shooting rate cooled off, producing a clean 3-2 final that landed right on our 5.6-goal projection. Process and result aligned perfectly here.
📊 Recap
Colorado dropped a tight one to Philadelphia 3-2. The structural edge we identified was real, but a 65% win probability means this result falls within normal variance — no process issues here, just a night where the Flyers made it count.
📊 Recap
Maple Leafs covered the result cleanly, winning 3-1 as Toronto's structural advantages held up. The special teams edge and San Jose's regulation struggles were real factors — good process, clean outcome.
📊 Recap
Mammoth ML cashes in a close one, 5-4. The fatigue angle on Pittsburgh held up — a team playing their fourth game in five nights on altitude didn't have enough to outlast Utah's defensive structure, which is exactly what we leaned on.
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