📊 Recap
Detroit handled New York 31-24, a seven-point final margin that just cleared our 6.5 cushion. The model's four-point projection wasn't far off, but a half-point separated a push from a loss — that's the margin business we're in.
📊 Recap
The Under 45.5 hit comfortably as both offenses delivered exactly the low-scoring profile our model projected — the Patriots managed just 6 points, keeping the combined total well inside our 43-point estimate. Process and result aligned cleanly here.
📊 Recap
The Texans and Colts combined for just 36 points in a defensive standstill, falling well short of our 45-point projection. The data pointed toward more scoring, but both units tightened up when it mattered — we take the loss and move on.
📊 Recap
The Panthers and Browns combined for just 39 points, finishing well short of the 42.5 total in a low-scoring defensive battle. Our model projected 44, and the early-season defensive trends supported the number — this one simply didn't materialize. A loss we can accept without apology.
📊 Recap
The Under 42.5 didn't hold, as a 57-point final pushed well past our projection. The logic around wind suppression and Pittsburgh's offensive limitations was sound, but the scoring outpaced the model tonight — that's the variance.
📊 Recap
The Colts covered in a tight one, 19-17, validating the value of taking points in a near-coin-flip spot. With Houston's offense still hampered by the absence of Nico Collins, Indianapolis had just enough to get the job done.
📊 Recap
The Cardinals and 49ers combined for 66 points, clearing the 48.5 total comfortably. Our model projected 46.5, and the defensive trend we leaned on simply didn't hold — the number was beat by a wide margin. A clean loss.
📊 Recap
The Raiders covered comfortably, losing by eight but staying well within the 3.5-point cushion our model identified. The defensive efficiency we noted held — 35 points allowed is a tick above projection, but the spread gave us exactly the buffer we needed.
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