📊 Recap
The weather-driven structural case held up in full — 9-3 is about as clean a validation of an environmental under as you'll see. Passing games were neutralized, scoring opportunities dried up, and the total landed 35.5 points below the number.
📊 Recap
Jets covered at home, winning 20-17 in a game that played out close to our model's pick'em projection. The weather-friendly ground game and Green Bay's depleted interior line were legitimate edges — the line movement told the story early, and the result followed.
📊 Recap
The Colts kept it close as projected, with Kansas City's offensive line concerns and Jones's injury limiting their ability to pull away. A tight 33-30 final validated both the spread value and our model's read on Indianapolis's capacity to control the game.
📊 Recap
Bears -4.5 ❌ | Final: 9-3
Both offenses stalled in what became a low-scoring grind, and Chicago never generated enough to cover. The conditions aligned with our model, but the Bears simply didn't execute — a clean loss.
📊 Recap
Tampa Bay won the game but couldn't cover, falling just short of the number in a closer-than-projected 23-19 final. Our model saw an 11-point edge that simply didn't materialize — the Browns kept it competitive, and we take the loss.
📊 Recap
The Under 41.5 didn't hold, as a 23-19 final pushed the combined total to 42 — one point over the number. Both teams found just enough offense to sink us at the margin, though the low-scoring environment our model projected largely materialized.
📊 Recap
The defensive dominance we anticipated materialized in full — Pittsburgh's defense suffocated New England's offense, and Maye's struggles continued as projected. A 23-point combined total made 41.5 look generous in hindsight. Clean process, clean result.
📊 Recap
The weather played out exactly as projected, suppressing both passing games and keeping the Jets' offense in ball-control mode. A clean 37-point final validated our 42.5 model projection with room to spare — process and outcome aligned here.
📊 Recap
Jacksonville kept it close but couldn't get over the hump in a 20-13 loss to Denver. The model's read on value at +2.5 was sound — sometimes a well-positioned line just doesn't convert.
📊 Recap
San Francisco covered comfortably, winning 35-13 and making our +13.5 cushion irrelevant. The model's 11-point projection was off — the 49ers dominated by 22 — and the line reflected the talent gap accurately. A clean loss.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →