📊 Recap
Our Over 5.5 projection missed as Blues-Jets finished 3-2, falling short by half a goal. The anticipated high-event environment didn't materialize despite our sound process identifying goaltending and defensive vulnerabilities - sometimes the variance simply doesn't break your way.
📊 Recap
Our projection of San Jose's defensive erosion on zero rest proved accurate as Ottawa capitalized with seven goals, easily covering the -1.5 puckline at +114 for solid expected value realization.
📊 Recap
Our Back-to-Back Scenario B model executed as projected, with both teams showing the expected fatigue-induced defensive lapses that pushed the total to seven goals. The convergence of Montreal's high-scoring tendencies and Gudas's absence created the offensive environment we anticipated.
📊 Recap
Our analysis correctly identified Minnesota's defensive strengths, but Toronto's offense found enough rhythm despite missing Matthews to secure a 4-2 victory. The fundamental read on goaltending and home advantage was sound, but execution didn't align with our projected edge.
📊 Recap
Our UNDER 6.0 pushed as the game landed exactly on the total with a 4-2 final. Wallstedt delivered as projected with strong goaltending, and our process remains sound despite the neutral outcome.
📊 Recap
Our over 6.5 cashed out at just 4 total goals as both offenses failed to capitalize despite quality opportunities. The process remains sound with strong underlying metrics, but variance worked against us in a defensive battle that contradicted recent trends.
📊 Recap
Our Under 235.5 projection missed as Dallas-Cleveland combined for 250 points in a 130-120 final. While Cleveland's pace did slow without Allen as expected, Dallas found enough offensive rhythm despite their depleted roster to push this total well over our model's 233.5 projection.
📊 Recap
Our UNDER 223.5 cashed comfortably as Detroit's elite defense held serve in the 108-119 result, totaling just 227 points. The moderate pace and defensive pressure we projected materialized exactly as modeled, creating the lower-scoring environment that kept us well beneath the posted number.
📊 Recap
The Jazz fell short 111-116, failing to cover the +3.5 spread in a game that played out largely as expected with both teams struggling defensively. Our process identified legitimate value in the line, but execution on the court didn't align with the underlying metrics.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →