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The Over cashed comfortably as Orlando's offense exploited Brooklyn's defensive vulnerabilities, with the Magic shooting efficiently en route to 118 points in a game that cleared the total by nearly two points.
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Our Under 226.5 missed as the Wizards-Pistons total reached 243 points in a 126-117 contest. Detroit's typically strong defense failed to contain Washington's offense, and the game pace exceeded our projections despite the Wizards' depleted roster situation.
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The UNDER 226.5 missed as the game totaled 230 points in a 123-107 Raptors victory. While Toronto's back-to-back situation materialized as expected, Chicago's depleted roster couldn't generate enough defensive stops to compensate for the pace factors we identified.
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Our Over 216.5 missed as the Hornets-Rockets game totaled just 208 points in Houston's 109-99 victory. While Charlotte's defensive struggles were evident in allowing 109 points, Houston's offense failed to reach expected levels, falling short of our projection despite the clear statistical mismatch we identified.
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The Spurs covered the 8.5-point spread with a 12-point victory, outpacing our model's 5.0-point projection as Dallas struggled defensively at home. While our process identified legitimate edges with San Antonio's back-to-back scheduling and injury concerns, the variance didn't break our way in this spot.
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Our projection of Lyon's regression materialized as Buffalo allowed 5 goals, while Pittsburgh's continued offensive pace contributed to a 7-goal total that comfortably cleared our 6.5 threshold.
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Our Under 6.5 projection hit as expected, with both teams struggling offensively in a 2-1 final that produced just 3 total goals. The defensive-oriented contest we modeled played out perfectly, with strong goaltending and limited scoring chances throughout.
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Our fatigue modeling proved accurate as Nashville's back-to-back road situation contributed to limited offensive output in a 4-2 final that comfortably stayed Under 6.5. The projected scoring reduction materialized exactly as our systematic analysis indicated.
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Our analysis of defensive structure and market overreaction to goaltending narratives proved correct, as the Metropolitan Division rivals delivered exactly the low-scoring affair we anticipated. The structured systems we identified limited quality chances throughout, validating our process on this under.
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Josi was held off the scoresheet despite playing his typical heavy minutes and power-play role. The process remains sound given his recent 80% hit rate over 10 games, but variance worked against us in this matchup.
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Kempe failed to register a point despite entering with strong recent form and favorable matchup history against Vegas. The underlying process remained sound given his consistent production streak, but variance worked against us in this spot.
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