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The pitching disparity materialized as projected, with Elder delivering quality innings while Irvin struggled early, and Atlanta's superior bullpen maintained the lead through the late innings for a comfortable 9-4 victory that covered the -1.5 spread.
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Our Toronto +9.5 pick lost as the Raptors fell 105-115, covering by just half a point. The fundamental thesis held with Toronto keeping pace defensively, but Cleveland's consistent offensive execution throughout prevented the closer margin our model projected.
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Strus recorded just 6 points on poor shooting efficiency, validating our thesis that his 24-point Game 1 explosion was an unsustainable outlier and the market's 40% line inflation created clear value on the under.
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Barnes finished with 4 rebounds, falling short of the 6.5 line in another below-average rebounding performance. While the underlying process remains sound given his season average, variance worked against us in consecutive games.
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Frederik Andersen delivered the expected playoff-level goaltending with 27 saves, while Ottawa's depleted defensive corps struggled to generate quality transition opportunities against Carolina's structured forecheck, producing the low-scoring affair our analysis anticipated.
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Our UNDER 9.0 analysis correctly identified the underlying metrics favoring both starters, but Kansas City's offense exceeded expectations in a 7-5 loss that pushed the total to 12 runs. The process was sound despite the unfavorable variance.
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Our Over 217.5 projection missed significantly as both teams combined for just 213 points in a defensive struggle. While our analysis correctly identified the offensive capabilities, the playoff environment produced even more pace compression and defensive intensity than anticipated.
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Our analysis proved accurate as Jalen Johnson managed just 8 rebounds against New York's stingy defensive rebounding unit. The Knicks' structured system limited his opportunities as expected, validating our assessment of the challenging matchup dynamics.
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Brunson delivered with 29 points, clearing our 26.5 target as his home court advantage at Madison Square Garden played out as expected against Atlanta's middling defense.
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Hart recorded 13 rebounds, well above his season baseline, as the statistical outlier from Game 1 extended rather than regressed to his established mean. The underlying process remains sound, but variance worked against us in this instance.
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Our OVER 11.5 cashed comfortably as Quintana's command issues materialized early and Coors Field's altitude delivered the anticipated offensive environment, with 15 total runs clearing our number with room to spare.
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Our Stars ML cashed as Dallas delivered the expected home response, winning 4-2 behind Oettinger's bounce-back performance. The process held up with both key factors - goaltending regression and home ice advantage after a Game 1 loss - playing out as anticipated.
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The pitching matchup delivered as projected, with both Cease and Detmers limiting offensive output in a clean 5-2 finish that stayed comfortably under the 7.5 total. Strong process execution when elite swing-and-miss metrics aligned with recent offensive trends.
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Our Under 231.5 projection missed as Minnesota-Denver combined for 233 points in a 119-114 contest. The defensive intensity we anticipated was present, but both teams shot efficiently enough to narrowly exceed our 228-point forecast.
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Jokic finished with 8 assists, falling one short of our 9.5 threshold despite our strong process identifying his historical success against Minnesota's defensive scheme. The underlying matchup dynamics remain sound, but execution variance went against us in this instance.
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Reid connected on just 1 of his 3-point attempts against Denver, falling short of our 1.5 number despite the solid process behind targeting his historical success against this matchup. The underlying reasoning remained sound, but variance didn't break our way on the night.
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Jokic finished with 23 rebounds and assists, falling just half a stat short of our 23.5 target in a tight loss. The process remains sound given his season-long average and Game 1 performance, but playoff variance struck on a number that required every possession.
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