📊 Recap
The Knicks dominated wire-to-wire, making this one a non-starter early. A 32-point blowout is a tough result, but the logic behind capturing asymmetric value at +700 remains sound — variance doesn't always cooperate, and that's part of the process.
📊 Recap
Burries finished with exactly 3 assists, landing right in our projected range and keeping the under intact. Limited facilitation opportunities within his role and the Knicks' disciplined defense played out just as anticipated.
📊 Recap
Jaquez connected on two threes, one more than our projection accounted for. The underlying profile still supports this line long-term, but tonight the variance didn't fall our way.
📊 Recap
The 76ers were blown out 123-101, a result that made the spread irrelevant from early on. No excuses — this one wasn't close, and the market read this game better than we did.
📊 Recap
Tatum finished with just 4 assists, well under the 7.5 line and right in line with our model's projection. His scoring-first role limited his distribution, exactly as anticipated.
📊 Recap
Pritchard came out firing and hit 4 threes, well above his typical baseline — the kind of ceiling outcome we specifically faded. The process was sound, but tonight he delivered the exception, not the rule.
📊 Recap
The Suns handled business at home, pulling away convincingly in a 133-110 win. Phoenix's home-floor edge and the Clippers' backcourt struggles played out exactly as anticipated — a clean result backed by sound reasoning.
📊 Recap
Lopez finished with just one three, one short of what we needed. The read on Phoenix's defensive vulnerability was sound, but variance is part of the equation when targeting low-volume spots — this one simply didn't convert.
📊 Recap
The structural logic held up — Sanders stepped into expanded playmaking duties as anticipated and delivered well beyond the 1.5 threshold. Elevated role, clean result.
📊 Recap
Wagler delivered exactly what his profile suggested, connecting on a three in a matchup that set him up well. The soft line did its job — when your projection sits at 1.5+, clearing a half-make is a comfortable margin, and it played out accordingly.
📊 Recap
Dunn delivered exactly what the minutes suggested he would, connecting on one three to clear the threshold. The logic held — consistent starting role, manageable volume, modest line.
📊 Recap
Heat -8.5 didn't get there, falling short in a 115-109 final. The edge was real at the time of pick, but Utah covered and we take the loss.
📊 Recap
The Jazz's depleted offense delivered exactly what our model projected, with the final score of 115-109 landing well inside the 227.5 total. A clean execution of the thesis — missing key offensive pieces translated to a reduced scoring ceiling, just as anticipated.
📊 Recap
Klay finished with just 2 threes, and the number didn't get there. The matchup logic held — this was a price play against a permissive defense — but Thompson didn't deliver the volume needed. Sometimes the edge doesn't cash.
📊 Recap
Bam finished with 4 assists, one above our 3.5 target, and the under didn't hold. The logic around suppressed playmaking opportunities was sound, but the number came in just close enough to burn us tonight.
📊 Recap
Larsson connected on two threes tonight, clearing the 1.5 line and handing us the loss. The volume projection held reasonable logic, but he found the looks and made them count — a clean result that didn't go our way.
📊 Recap
Magic took care of business in Sacramento, 107-100. Sacramento's defensive struggles proved to be the difference, exactly as anticipated — Orlando's efficient ball movement found consistent openings against a Kings unit that simply couldn't hold up.
📊 Recap
The under cashed comfortably, with the final score of 107-100 (207 total) landing well beneath our 219 projection. Shorthanded rosters on both sides played out exactly as modeled, producing a grinded-out, low-pace contest that never threatened the number.
📊 Recap
Bane delivered exactly what the expanded playmaking role projected, finishing with 4 assists against our 2.5 line. The injury-driven usage shift created real edge here, and the market hadn't fully adjusted.
📊 Recap
The Thunder dropped this one decisively, 103-123, and Portland controlled the game throughout. Our reasoning around Oklahoma City's defensive strength and momentum was sound, but the execution simply wasn't there tonight — we take the loss and move forward.
📊 Recap
The Under had structure behind it — elite OKC defense, depleted guard rotations — but Portland's offense found a groove and the final 226 points edged past our number. The process was sound; the result didn't follow.
📊 Recap
SGA stayed true to his attacking style, keeping his three-point attempts minimal and cashing the under with room to spare. His shot profile did exactly what we expected it to do.
📊 Recap
Mitchell's interior-focused shot profile held up as projected, keeping his three-point attempts within range. The line gave us enough cushion, and his established tendencies did the rest.
📊 Recap
Caruso finished with just 1 three, exactly in line with our projection. Limited minutes continued to cap his attempts, and the multi-three output the line required never materialized — a clean win built on a straightforward read of his role.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →