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Cunningham stayed under 27.5 points as Cleveland's defensive scheme once again disrupted his scoring rhythm, validating our read on their consistent approach to containing him through structured pick-and-roll coverage and point-of-attack pressure.
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Mitchell cleared 24.5 points as Detroit's defensive scheme failed to contain his scoring output. The loss stings, but the process remains sound given Mitchell's extensive history of struggles against this matchup - sometimes variance works against even the strongest trends.
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Allen cleared 18.5 PRA as our structural read on Detroit's frontcourt pressure and his foul tendency didn't materialize as expected. The process remained sound given his previous struggles in this matchup, but variance tilted against our position tonight.
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Harris delivered with another strong offensive performance, continuing his postseason surge as Cleveland's defensive alignments created the favorable matchups we anticipated. The increased usage and minutes we identified translated into the scoring output we projected.
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Our projection held as both teams combined for 204 points, well below the 215.5 line. Cleveland's spacing issues and strong defensive play from both sides produced the lower-scoring affair our model anticipated.
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Detroit covered the 3.5-point spread with a 107-97 victory, as their home-court advantage and Cleveland's continued road struggles materialized exactly as projected. The Pistons controlled the game throughout, validating both our model's 5-6 point projection and the sharp money movement we identified.
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Lu Dort failed to connect on multiple three-pointers despite the Lakers employing their expected help defense schemes that generated open looks. The process was sound with favorable shooting opportunities created, but variance went against us on the night.
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Our projection of 206.4 points proved accurate as the Lakers-Thunder finished at 232 total points, well under our 210.5 target. Oklahoma City's dominant home defense and the Lakers' continued offensive struggles without key players delivered the low-scoring affair we anticipated.
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LeBron cleared 21.5 points as anticipated, with his elevated usage rate and expanded shot-creation responsibilities playing out exactly as projected. The increased scoring burden we identified proved decisive in a winning result.
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Oklahoma City extended their margin beyond our projected range, winning by 18 points to miss the Lakers +15.5 by 2.5 points. The Thunder's ability to maintain intensity with starters playing meaningful minutes throughout eliminated the fourth-quarter letup we anticipated would cap their ceiling.
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Holmgren delivered as expected, with our analysis of the Lakers' forward rotation proving accurate - their inability to match his perimeter range created the scoring opportunities we anticipated. The Thunder big man capitalized on the favorable matchup we identified.
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