📊 Recap
Our theoretical edge on Dallas +14.5 didn't materialize as Boston controlled the game throughout, winning 120-100 and covering by 5.5 points. The Celtics showed no rust with Tatum back, while Dallas's struggles continued deeper than our model anticipated.
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Our Over 229.5 cashed comfortably as both teams delivered the offensive output our model projected, with the final reaching 248 total points. Charlotte's continued hot streak and Miami's elevated scoring combined exactly as anticipated for a clean winner.
📊 Recap
Our projection proved accurate as Miami covered +7.5 in a 128-120 loss, with the Heat's competitive core keeping them within range despite road/back-to-back challenges. Charlotte's recent dominant margins regressed as expected, validating our process on this winning wager.
📊 Recap
The over missed badly as both teams shot poorly in a low-possession game that totaled just 205 points. Our read on Houston's defensive vulnerabilities without Smith and Thompson was sound, but Portland's offensive struggles (99 points) created the wrong type of pace environment.
📊 Recap
Houston covered comfortably with a 7-point victory, as the talent differential we identified played out exactly as projected. The Rockets controlled the game against Portland's shorthanded roster, validating our process despite the market undervaluing Houston's advantage.
📊 Recap
Our process identified value in Denver's home court advantage and healthy rotation, but the Nuggets suffered a stunning 39-point blowout loss that fell well outside normal variance expectations. Sometimes the market knows something our model doesn't capture.
📊 Recap
Our over 229.5 cashed comfortably as both teams combined for 245 points in a 142-103 final. The elevated offensive efficiency we identified played out exactly as projected, with Denver's back-to-back fatigue contributing to the defensive breakdown our model anticipated.
📊 Recap
Phoenix fell just short in a 118-116 loss, failing to cover the 5.5-point spread despite our model's 8.2-point projection. The talent differential we identified was evident throughout, but execution in crucial moments ultimately determined a tighter-than-expected outcome.
📊 Recap
The Spurs couldn't hold serve at home, falling 112-116 to the Clippers despite our model identifying solid value on the 6.5-point spread. San Antonio's defense performed as projected, but their offense struggled in key moments against a depleted LA squad.
📊 Recap
Our OVER 223.5 cashed as the Clippers edged the Spurs 116-112 for 228 total points. The offensive catalysts we identified delivered as projected, with both teams finding rhythm in a back-and-forth contest that validated our model's 4.3-point edge.
📊 Recap
Our Under 235.5 missed as the Lakers-Pacers totaled 245 points in a 128-117 LA victory. While Indiana's offensive struggles materialized as expected, the Lakers' offense exceeded projections despite the back-to-back scheduling concerns we identified.
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