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Our under 238.5 cashed comfortably as the game totaled 227, playing out exactly as projected with Indiana's offensive limitations proving decisive in keeping the pace controlled and scoring opportunities limited throughout the contest.
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The Hawks' pace advantage failed to materialize as both teams shot poorly from deep, with the final 211 points falling well short of our 225.5 target. While Atlanta did push tempo as expected, neither team's offensive execution reached the efficiency levels our analysis projected.
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The UNDER 243.5 lost decisively as Miami and Cleveland combined for 277 points in a 149-128 Cavaliers victory. Both teams shot efficiently and the pace exceeded expectations, making this a clear miss on our projection.
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The Thunder's explosive offensive performance (131 points) and fast-paced game flow pushed the total well over our 239.5 target. We misjudged the game's tempo and both teams' ability to sustain high-efficiency scoring throughout.
📊 Recap
Our 2.9-point edge materialized as Chicago covered the 18.5-point spread in a 113-131 loss, staying competitive throughout despite the final margin. The Bulls generated sufficient offense as projected, while Oklahoma City's missing interior presence from Holmgren's absence helped Chicago remain within the inflated number.
📊 Recap
Our model's 4.9-point projection proved accurate as Memphis covered the inflated 13.5-point spread comfortably, losing by just 10 points despite their severely depleted roster. The 8.6-point edge we identified materialized as expected.
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Our Over 227.5 missed as the game totaled just 225 points. The defensive fade on New Orleans didn't materialize as expected, and both teams shot below their projected efficiency marks in what became a lower-scoring affair than our B2B protocol anticipated.
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Our projection correctly identified the market's overreaction to Golden State's home court advantage and Washington's poor record, as the depleted Warriors roster struggled to create separation against a Wizards team that competed effectively in a high-scoring affair.
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Our projection hit the mark as both teams' offensive struggles materialized exactly as forecasted, with Dallas's poor offensive rating and Portland's depleted lineup combining for just 193 total points—well under our 232.8 model projection.
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Our Dallas +10.5 pick cashed comfortably as the Mavericks covered in a 100-93 loss, validating our model's 3.8-point edge projection. The talented Dallas roster kept pace throughout, confirming our thesis that the market overvalued Portland's home advantage in this spread compression scenario.
📊 Recap
Our projection identified legitimate value on Brooklyn +15.5, but the Lakers executed efficiently while the Nets struggled offensively in a 116-99 defeat that exceeded our modeled spread by several points. The process remains sound despite variance not breaking our direction.
📊 Recap
Our OVER 222.5 projection missed significantly as the game totaled just 215 points, falling well short of both our 226.3 model projection and the market expectation. Both offenses struggled to find rhythm despite the personnel being present, highlighting the inherent variance in total betting even with sound process.
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