📊 Recap
Our projection identified strong value with Detroit's defensive metrics, but the Pistons couldn't contain Atlanta in a high-scoring affair that saw both teams exceed expected offensive output. Sometimes variance works against sound process.
📊 Recap
Our read on Indiana's defensive vulnerabilities proved accurate as both teams combined for 267 points, sailing past the 238.5 total. The Pacers allowed 137 points to the Lakers while contributing 130 themselves, validating our process on their continued struggles limiting opponent scoring.
📊 Recap
Our projection of a 7-point Lakers victory proved accurate as they won by exactly that margin, validating the value we identified on the 9.5-point spread. The absence of interior defenders on both sides contributed to the high-scoring affair we anticipated, with Indiana covering comfortably at home.
📊 Recap
Our under projection missed badly as both teams shot efficiently in a high-scoring 294-point affair, with Philadelphia exploding for 157 points despite our concerns about Embiid's status limiting their offensive output.
📊 Recap
Our process was sound backing Oklahoma City's elite defensive foundation, but Boston's offensive execution proved superior in a 119-109 home victory that snapped the Thunder's 12-game winning streak. The Celtics' spacing concerns we identified didn't materialize as they shot efficiently from beyond the arc.
📊 Recap
Cleveland fell well short in a 120-103 loss to Miami, with our projected home advantage failing to materialize against a Heat team that shot efficiently and controlled the game throughout. The loss reminds us that even sound projections can't account for execution gaps on any given night.
📊 Recap
Our Memphis +16.5 position fell short as San Antonio controlled all four quarters en route to a 25-point victory, 123-98. The Grizzlies' floor rating proved insufficient against sustained Spurs efficiency, demonstrating how large road favorites can occasionally exceed historical coverage patterns.
📊 Recap
The absence of Utah's primary rim protectors played out exactly as projected, with both teams combining for 243 points in a defensively porous matchup that exceeded our 238.5 total.
📊 Recap
Our 3.0-point edge materialized as defensive execution dominated, with the total falling well short at 218. Edwards' absence and Gobert's rim protection created the lower-scoring environment we projected in this tightly contested two-point game.
📊 Recap
Our Dallas +11.5 selection cashed as Denver's back-to-back defensive struggles materialized exactly as projected, with the Mavericks covering in a 142-135 loss. The inflated spread created clear value despite Dallas falling short, validating our process on identifying fatigue-related defensive regression.
📊 Recap
Our over 216.5 missed as the Warriors edged Brooklyn 109-106 for a 215 total. Despite Golden State's high three-point volume creating the expected variance, both teams fell just short of our projected 105+ floor, with the total landing one point below the number.
📊 Recap
Our model projected a 6.7-point Portland win, but the Blazers dominated 130-99, far exceeding our variance expectations. Milwaukee's defense completely broke down on the road, failing to show the resilience we've tracked in previous large spread situations.
📊 Recap
Our projection held as Milwaukee's compromised defense without Giannis allowed Portland to exploit rim protection gaps, with the total clearing 226.5 comfortably at 229. The 10-point model edge materialized through disciplined process execution.
📊 Recap
Our Toronto +3.5 position was soundly defeated as the Clippers dominated 119-94, covering by over 21 points. While our injury algorithm correctly identified Leonard's impact, we underestimated LA's depth and overvalued Toronto's ability to maintain competitiveness on the road.
Want the full card?
Premium members get all picks, risk profiles, and position sizing.
View Premium Picks →