📊 Recap
Our projection model called for a 7.7-point Hawks win, but Atlanta exceeded expectations with an 11-point victory that covered the 10.5-point spread. The Hawks overcame their recent inconsistency to deliver a more decisive performance than their recent form suggested.
📊 Recap
Dallas covered the 2.5-point spread in a 134-130 victory, with our projection proving accurate as the Mavericks won by 4 points. The combination of contrarian value from their losing streak and Indiana's depth issues created the edge we identified in our pre-game analysis.
📊 Recap
Our projection model missed badly as Charlotte dominated 129-112, covering the 11.5-point spread with ease. Washington's recent momentum proved irrelevant against a Hornets squad that executed at a high level despite rotation concerns.
📊 Recap
Boston's offensive system delivered as projected, with the Celtics controlling the game throughout to cover -1.5 comfortably in a 111-89 victory over the Lakers. Our model's 3.8-point edge materialized with Boston winning by the full 22 points.
📊 Recap
Our OVER 229.5 missed decisively as the game totaled just 200 points in Boston's 111-89 blowout victory. While our model correctly identified the offensive-defensive mismatch, the lopsided nature eliminated competitive possessions and pace needed for our projected scoring environment.
📊 Recap
Our projection called for an 11.8-point Minnesota win, and while the Timberwolves delivered with a dominant 27-point victory, Philadelphia's complete collapse exceeded even our bearish expectations on their four-game skid. The process was sound, but variance worked against the spread despite correctly identifying the winning side.
📊 Recap
Our over 230.5 lost as the Knicks-Bulls game finished 105-99 for just 204 total points. Both teams shot poorly and the pace was slower than projected, resulting in a significant miss on our model's 235.6 point expectation.
📊 Recap
Our Over 222.5 projection missed badly as Portland-Phoenix combined for just 169 total points, falling 53.5 points short of the line. Both offenses struggled significantly more than our model anticipated, with the final falling well outside normal variance expectations.
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