📊 Recap
Our projection of a tightly contested game materialized perfectly as Charlotte covered the 4.5-point spread in a 105-101 decision. The Hornets' strong home form and the game's deliberate pace kept it within our anticipated range throughout.
📊 Recap
Our over projection missed badly as both teams shot poorly in an unexpectedly low-scoring affair, with the total falling 34 points short of the closing number. Cleveland's typically explosive offense managed just 84 points, well below their season average and our model's expectations.
📊 Recap
Our under 237.5 cashed comfortably as the Hawks-76ers finished with 224 total points, nearly 9 points below the closing line. The projected close spread environment materialized exactly as modeled, with both teams shooting inefficiently in what became a grind-it-out affair.
📊 Recap
Washington's home-court advantage and Indiana's roster limitations played out as projected, with the Wizards covering the 2.5-point spread in a 112-105 victory. The high-variance nature we anticipated materialized, but our edge identification on the fundamentals proved sound.
📊 Recap
Our projection of Detroit as a pick'em proved accurate as the Pistons controlled the game throughout, winning outright 126-111 and easily covering the +4.5 spread. The systematic approach and talent advantage we identified overcame the frontcourt depth concerns we flagged pre-game.
📊 Recap
Our projection model anticipated a closer contest, but Toronto controlled the game throughout, winning 110-101 and covering the 6.5-point spread comfortably. The Raptors' 9-point victory exceeded our 2.92-point projection, demonstrating that market perception of Chicago's struggles may have been appropriately priced after all.
📊 Recap
Our Under 231.5 cashed comfortably with a final total of 211, as Toronto's elite defense held Chicago to just 101 points while the Bulls' offensive struggles continued exactly as projected.
📊 Recap
Our projection of a controlled Spurs victory materialized perfectly as San Antonio dominated 121-94, covering the -7.5 spread by a comfortable margin. The defensive mismatch we identified proved decisive against a depleted Phoenix squad.
📊 Recap
Our model projected a 3.27-point Orlando win, but the Magic dominated wire-to-wire in a 37-point blowout that rendered the 8.5-point spread irrelevant. Sometimes the market correctly prices in information our adjustments miss, and this was one of those nights.
📊 Recap
Our projection of 227.6 points proved accurate as Orlando-Sacramento delivered 225 total points, hitting the over with room to spare. Sacramento's offensive depth performed as expected despite their recent struggles, validating our model's assessment that the market had overcorrected.
📊 Recap
Our projection of a tight 1.35-point Denver win played out perfectly as the Nuggets edged the Clippers 115-114, with the absence of Aaron Gordon proving meaningful in keeping this within our expected narrow margin for easy LAC +4.5 coverage.
📊 Recap
Our Over 226.5 connected as the game totaled 229 points, landing within our projected range of 229.29. Denver's offensive efficiency under Jokic delivered as expected, generating enough quality scoring opportunities in a competitive contest that stayed true to our process-driven analysis.
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