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Our under 233.5 cashed comfortably as the game finished with 217 total points, falling well short of both the market number and our 228.1 projection. Atlanta's injury concerns materialized into the grinding, low-scoring affair we anticipated.
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The under missed as Cleveland exploded for 138 points despite Mobley's absence, with their offense clicking at a much higher level than our model anticipated. Sometimes the large edge we identified signals model limitations rather than market inefficiency, as appeared to be the case here.
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Our projection held as Milwaukee and Orlando combined for 224 points, with the Magic's offensive confidence from their winning streak materializing in a pace that pushed the total over our 220.5 number despite Giannis's absence.
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The Under missed as the game totaled 229 points, with Boston's offense clicking at a higher level than anticipated despite their strong defensive showing. While Chicago's depleted roster performed as expected, the Celtics' 124-point output exceeded our projections in what became a more offense-friendly environment.
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Our model's projection proved accurate as Boston's defensive intensity overwhelmed Chicago's depleted roster, with the Celtics covering -13.5 comfortably in a 19-point victory that aligned with our expected edge.
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Our model's projection proved accurate as Indiana covered the 6.5-point spread in a 115-110 loss, with Brooklyn's defensive struggles and back-to-back fatigue helping keep the margin within our anticipated range despite the road venue disadvantage.
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Our projection proved accurate as the Knicks' elite offensive form materialized in dominant fashion, cruising to a 138-89 victory that easily covered the +2.5 spread. The healthy core trio delivered exactly the consistent production we anticipated in our analysis.
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Detroit's superior talent and road execution delivered as expected, with the Pistons controlling the game throughout for a comfortable 18-point victory that easily covered the 1.5-point spread. The market's undervaluation of Detroit's quality was evident as they dominated both ends against Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities.
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Our Under 223.5 cashed comfortably as Detroit's defensive identity controlled the game exactly as projected, holding Toronto to just 95 points in a 113-95 final that totaled 208. The Pistons' elite defensive rating and tempo control created the grinding pace we anticipated.
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Our under 237.5 projection missed as the game totaled 242 points, with Minnesota's offense exploding for 133 points despite Edwards' illness concerns. The pace metrics held as expected, but we underestimated the Timberwolves' ability to compensate offensively without their primary catalyst.
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Our model's projection of Miami's offensive superiority proved accurate as the Heat covered the 1.5-point spread comfortably in a 123-111 victory, with their 113.6 offensive rating advantage over New Orleans materializing exactly as anticipated.
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The Heat-Pelicans game went over 232.5 as Miami's offense found rhythm despite Herro's absence and the game never developed into the competitive, grind-it-out contest our model projected. Sometimes the variance doesn't break your way.
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Our analysis correctly identified Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's absence as significant, but Oklahoma City's depth proved far superior to our projections as they dominated 136-109, covering the 8.5-point spread decisively despite missing their star player.
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Our Under 213.5 missed as the game totaled 245 points, with Phoenix's offense exploding despite the back-to-back scheduling. Oklahoma City's elite defense failed to contain the Suns' shooting performance, negating the expected pace reduction and SGA's absence.
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Our defensive analysis proved accurate as both teams combined for poor defensive efficiency, but offensive execution fell significantly short with the Kings managing just 93 points in an unexpectedly lopsided affair that finished well under our 230.5 target.
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Our Memphis +14.5 pick cashed as the Grizzlies covered in a 122-116 loss, with Denver's blowout potential indeed limited as projected. The 6-point margin aligned closely with our model's 9.8-point projection, validating our read that the market overvalued the spread.
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Our projection materialized as Memphis's offensive limitations were exposed in the half-court sets, with both teams combining for 238 points to stay just under the closing number. The Grizzlies' compromised scoring depth proved decisive in keeping this total below our anticipated threshold.
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Our model's projection proved incorrect as San Antonio dominated 126-113, covering the 7.5-point spread with ease. The Warriors' depth failed to compensate for their limitations, and the Spurs showed no signs of fatigue from back-to-back games.
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The Spurs' offense delivered as projected with 126 points, validating our thesis that their 116.7 offensive rating during their hot streak would continue against Golden State's middle-tier defense. The total cleared comfortably at 239 points with both teams contributing to an efficient offensive showing.
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