📊 Recap
The Spurs failed to cover -11.5 in a closer-than-expected 106-103 victory, with the game staying competitive throughout despite San Antonio's defensive advantages. While our structural read on the talent gap proved correct with the Spurs winning outright, the margin fell well short of our expectation.
📊 Recap
The Spurs' defensive foundation delivered as expected, with Wembanyama's rim protection limiting Portland's interior scoring while the Trail Blazers' three-point struggles persisted, creating the controlled pace we anticipated for a comfortable under win at 209 total points.
📊 Recap
The Celtics controlled the game as expected but fell short of the large spread, winning 111-97 for a 14-point margin when we needed 15. Our read on Boston's dominance and Philadelphia's struggles was accurate, but the final possession margin didn't quite reach the threshold.
📊 Recap
Boston's methodical pace and defensive structure delivered exactly as projected, keeping the game well under 217.5 with a 208 total. The Celtics' league-leading Under tendency continued in playoff form, validating our read on the market's overcorrection from Game 1.
📊 Recap
Wembanyama managed just 4 rebounds in 32 minutes, falling well short of our over 11.5 target despite the solid process behind expecting regression from his previous 5-rebound outlier. Sometimes the variance works against you even with sound reasoning.
📊 Recap
Maxey delivered with 29 points as projected, with the increased usage rate and extended minutes in the must-win scenario playing out exactly as anticipated. The volume-driven approach proved correct as he shouldered the offensive load without Embiid.
📊 Recap
Avdija managed just 14 points on poor shooting efficiency, falling well short of our 23.5 target despite maintaining his expected role and minutes. The underlying usage thesis held, but shot-making variance worked against us in a straightforward loss.
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