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Atlanta covered the -1.5 as the Braves offense delivered the multi-run margin we projected, finishing 5-3 at Truist Park. The home run differential edge and Philadelphia's bullpen vulnerability both materialized, validating the structural logic behind the play.
📊 Recap
The NRFI didn't hold in Philadelphia vs. Atlanta, as a run crossed in the first inning. The underlying logic remains sound — first-inning scoring rates still favor this bet long-term — but tonight the variance didn't fall our way.
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The White Sox delivered a clean 6-3 win, validating the value we identified against an overpriced Astros line. Public bias toward Houston created the discrepancy we were targeting, and today's result reflected the underlying numbers more accurately than the market did.
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The Yankees dominated at home exactly as anticipated, shutting out Boston 9-0 behind the kind of lopsided run differential we flagged as a real possibility. The pitching matchup and lineup advantages both delivered — a clean result that validated the process.
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The pitchers did their job early, keeping both lineups off the board in the first inning exactly as the process suggested. Strong early-inning metrics held up, and fading the public's first-inning scoring bias proved to be the right call.
📊 Recap
The Padres delivered a dominant 8-0 shutout at Petco Park, validating the core thesis around San Diego's pitching edge and home-field advantage. The Cubs' road vulnerability was on full display, and the process behind this one held up cleanly from start to finish.
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