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Despite Gausman and Cantillo both delivering quality starts as projected, the bullpens surrendered late runs that pushed the total over our 7.5 number. Our process was sound with both starters performing to expectations, but relief pitching variance worked against us in the final innings.
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Our UNDER 7.5 analysis correctly identified the pitcher-friendly conditions at Oracle Park, but the Marlins offense exceeded expectations in a 6-2 loss for San Francisco. Sometimes variance breaks against sound process - the environmental factors and pitching matchup supported our thesis.
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Our analysis correctly identified the pitching disparity, but Washington overcame Jake Irvin's early-season struggles with a 6-3 victory that fell short of our White Sox -1.5 requirement. The fundamental edge we projected didn't materialize on the scoreboard.
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The Yankees delivered on our -1.5 pick with an 8-3 victory, as the pitching matchup advantage materialized exactly as projected with Weathers outdueling the struggling Burrows and New York's offense continuing their strong performance against Houston's depleted rotation.
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Our UNDER 8.0 fell as the Pirates and Brewers combined for 9 runs in a 6-3 final. Both Skenes and Myers delivered quality starts as projected, but timely hitting from both offenses pushed the total just over our number.
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Our Under 8.5 lost as the Phillies-Braves totaled 13 runs in an 8-5 final. Elder's recent dominance didn't carry over and Philadelphia's struggling offense found life against Atlanta pitching, with both sides of our thesis failing to materialize.
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The Cubs' nine-game winning streak came to an abrupt end as they were thoroughly outplayed 4-12, with neither the pitching advantage nor run line protection materializing in what became a complete breakdown of our thesis.
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Our projection of 11+ runs materialized as Detroit's offense capitalized on Cincinnati's pitching vulnerabilities, with the game clearing 9.5 runs comfortably at 11 total. Singer's continued struggles and exploitable peripherals played out as modeled.
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