Every pick we publish goes through the same process. No gut calls. No chasing action. Just a structured approach to finding value.
Here's how it works.
Start with the number, not the narrative
The line is the starting point — not the team names, not the storylines, not what happened last week.
Before any analysis begins, we ask: what does this number imply? What would need to be true for this line to be accurate?
Then we test that assumption.
What we evaluate
Each game gets assessed across multiple factors. The weight varies by sport, but the framework stays consistent.
Team strength and matchups
Offensive and defensive efficiency, pace, style of play. How do these specific teams match up, not just on paper, but in this specific context?
Injuries and availability
Who's in, who's out, who's questionable. This is why we release picks closer to game time — a late scratch can move a line 2-3 points. We'd rather have accurate information than early opinions.
Situational factors
Rest, travel, schedule spots, motivation. A team on a back-to-back playing their third road game in four nights is not the same team that played at home five days ago.
Market movement
Where did the line open? Where is it now? Why did it move? Sharp action, public money, and injury news all leave fingerprints on a line. We read them.
Historical context
Not "Team A is 8-2 against the spread" — that's noise. But relevant trends with context can confirm or challenge a thesis.
What we ignore
Just as important as what we look at is what we filter out.
- National media narratives
- "Revenge game" storylines
- Meaningless ATS records without context
- Public betting percentages in isolation
- Anything that sounds like a guarantee
If it feels like a talking point designed for television, it's not part of our process.
How we decide to bet
Not every game has value. Most don't.
We're looking for spots where our analysis suggests the line is off — where the implied probability doesn't match what we expect to happen. That gap is the edge.
No edge, no bet. Passing is a position.
When we do bet, we size based on conviction:
- 0.5 units — slight edge, worth a small position
- 1 unit — standard play, clear value identified
- 1.5–2 units — strong conviction, multiple factors aligning
You'll never see 5-unit "max plays" here. That's not analysis — that's marketing.
Why timing matters
We release picks closer to game time than most. This is intentional.
Early lines are based on projections and algorithms. As game time approaches, real information enters the market — injury reports, starting lineups, weather, sharp money.
We'd rather wait for that information than guess without it. Yes, sometimes lines move against us. But over time, accuracy beats speed.
The bottom line
This isn't about predicting the future. It's about making better decisions than the market, consistently, over time.
Some days we lose. Variance is part of the game. But if the process is sound, the results follow.
That's the methodology. No secrets. No magic. Just discipline.